Hey reader,
Today, we are going to learn about Base Rate Fallacy.
All set? Let’s go!
The base rate fallacy is a type of logical error that occurs when someone ignores important statistical information and instead relies too heavily on specific information or individual cases.
It's like focusing on one tree and ignoring the entire forest.
Say for example, if a person assumes that a rare disease is unlikely to affect them because they are young and healthy, even though the disease is prevalent in their family, they are committing the base rate fallacy. This is because they are ignoring the statistical likelihood of the disease occurring in their family and instead relying on their own specific circumstances.
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What do I need to know?
To avoid the base rate fallacy, it is important to consider both individual circumstances and statistical data when making decisions.
It's important to take into account the overall prevalence or likelihood of a certain outcome, rather than relying solely on specific examples or anecdotal evidence..